Ledger / Prediction #2161 · narrative · 24H

Will "burger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "burger" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -3.2110956375492385,
      "diversity": -0.75
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10672970471032707
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "burger",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0012755102040816326,
    "share60": 0.031640625,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 0.040312421264802216,
    "diversity": 0.125,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999277314814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10672970471032707
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.011

Log loss0.113

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00022748893576539687,
  "shareRatio": 0.20564212061354653,
  "totalAfter": 48354,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011446012972148034,
  "totalBefore": 41936,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 48
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that "burger" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.02% (-80%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "burger" (24H). momentum contributed -3.21 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash573f3a6e556ec0b7a185d9231bb5f544ad72da629f6abcf3a3b3f559e7ff4dbc

Previous hash1b20977ebef1a0fadad36e7e7a6c4c069043a16881a1127281113480603f196e