Ledger / Prediction #2159 · narrative · 6H

Will "fucking" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "fucking" (10 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 2.46×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": 0.8997782266240728,
      "diversity": -0.6
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5320027205820184
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fucking",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0778061224489796,
    "share60": 0.031640625,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 2.4590576971529354,
    "diversity": 0.25,
    "launches15": 30,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997109259259259
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5320027205820184
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.283

Log loss0.759

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0034860557768924302,
  "shareRatio": 0.48926143552176815,
  "totalAfter": 10040,
  "shareBefore": 0.007173447537473234,
  "totalBefore": 9340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 67
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "fucking" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.72% → 0.35% (-51%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "fucking" (6H). momentum contributed +0.90 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashecabbdf49101c9b3a022141f44367e0708253069c8f84b3842cea5bcb86a3460

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