Ledger / Prediction #2158 · narrative · 6H

Will "burger" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "burger" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -3.2110956375492385,
      "diversity": -0.75
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.054453003466349854
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "burger",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0012755102040816326,
    "share60": 0.031640625,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 0.040312421264802216,
    "diversity": 0.125,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997109259259259
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.054453003466349854
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.056

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00019920318725099602,
  "shareRatio": 0.05742505111757841,
  "totalAfter": 10040,
  "shareBefore": 0.004282655246252677,
  "totalBefore": 9340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "burger" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.43% → 0.02% (-95%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "burger" (6H). momentum contributed -3.21 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashae8d1613c9ae9e634dca740dded59267213e4bb49d8bd6c14a06841560434a5a

Previous hash6da4902e04bc85ded6d33466cd7bfdc3733014c0f8e6d9905ce7e34967da47a7