Ledger / Prediction #2157 · narrative · 6H
Will "fund" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 19% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
53 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "fund" (18 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.
Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3541281001677032,
"momentum": -1.5435651682833926,
"diversity": -0.49245283018867925
},
"rawProbability": 0.18583211564474267
},
"features": {
"term": "fund",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.008928571428571428,
"share60": 0.041796875,
"total15": 391,
"total60": 1279,
"momentum": 0.2136181575433912,
"diversity": 0.33962264150943394,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 53,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 165,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997109259259259
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.18583211564474267
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.663
Log loss1.683
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.010956175298804782,
"shareRatio": 1.0436201421886004,
"totalAfter": 10040,
"shareBefore": 0.010492505353319057,
"totalBefore": 9340,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 110,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 98
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 19% that "fund" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.05% → 1.10% (+4%). PARTIAL.
— "fund" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6da4902e04bc85ded6d33466cd7bfdc3733014c0f8e6d9905ce7e34967da47a7Previous hash
a7ee9b798a340bb8f99ef37b3eb4d4ba12996206a75847c9cfae0312a688fa4b