Ledger / Prediction #2156 · narrative · 1H

Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (12 distinct creators, rank #31). Last 15m momentum 0.91×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": -0.08961215868968717,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5104255266944315
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agent",
    "rank60": 31,
    "share15": 0.008928571428571428,
    "share60": 0.009765625,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 0.9142857142857143,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982655555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5104255266944315
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.240

Log loss0.673

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011014948859166011,
  "shareRatio": 1.1718553459119496,
  "totalAfter": 1271,
  "shareBefore": 0.009345794392523364,
  "totalBefore": 1284,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 12
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "agent" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.93% → 1.10% (+18%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "agent" (1H). diversity contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha7ee9b798a340bb8f99ef37b3eb4d4ba12996206a75847c9cfae0312a688fa4b

Previous hash6b38da7757ee512cc7a73f92ed4f0a880d8124146acaf5bdde194eb1ca2105f0