Ledger / Prediction #2155 · narrative · 1H

Will "fund" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "fund" (18 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": -1.5435651682833926,
      "diversity": -0.49245283018867925
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12111751777960424
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fund",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.008928571428571428,
    "share60": 0.041796875,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 0.2136181575433912,
    "diversity": 0.33962264150943394,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982655555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12111751777960424
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.015

Log loss0.129

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010228166797797011,
  "shareRatio": 0.2549153588432375,
  "totalAfter": 1271,
  "shareBefore": 0.04127725856697819,
  "totalBefore": 1284,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "fund" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.13% → 1.02% (-75%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "fund" (1H). momentum contributed -1.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6b38da7757ee512cc7a73f92ed4f0a880d8124146acaf5bdde194eb1ca2105f0

Previous hash88dc594c1ea7003035e67cf628379f3307d82dd959c99f9f06506244d33b671c