Ledger / Prediction #2154 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

115 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (33 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.78×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.47032413238937243,
      "momentum": 1.0241395353393952,
      "diversity": -0.5556521739130434
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.654484747767855
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.2512755102040816,
    "share60": 0.090234375,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 2.7846982949023764,
    "diversity": 0.28695652173913044,
    "launches15": 98,
    "launches60": 115,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982655555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.654484747767855
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.428

Log loss1.063

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00944138473642801,
  "shareRatio": 0.10933118244438998,
  "totalAfter": 1271,
  "shareBefore": 0.0895638629283489,
  "totalBefore": 1284,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.96% → 0.94% (-89%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed +1.02 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash88dc594c1ea7003035e67cf628379f3307d82dd959c99f9f06506244d33b671c

Previous hash035da27120c6f0522f4626cca3300fbc1cd1e8ff0499009e488943b6ba5074d6