Ledger / Prediction #2153 · narrative · 1H

Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

139 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (29 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.94×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4987554031044887,
      "momentum": 1.0775946744336187,
      "diversity": -0.6496402877697841
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6517430431902899
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.3201530612244898,
    "share60": 0.108984375,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 2.9376051495867164,
    "diversity": 0.20863309352517986,
    "launches15": 125,
    "launches60": 139,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982655555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6517430431902899
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.425

Log loss1.055

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011014948859166011,
  "shareRatio": 0.1050049593111066,
  "totalAfter": 1271,
  "shareBefore": 0.10825545171339564,
  "totalBefore": 1284,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 139
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "crypto" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 10.83% → 1.10% (-90%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "crypto" (1H). momentum contributed +1.08 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash035da27120c6f0522f4626cca3300fbc1cd1e8ff0499009e488943b6ba5074d6

Previous hashdc011aa93ce970f1e80a40c07f9151dfb0b17f7bdf51155618d395147e2317d9