Ledger / Prediction #2146 · narrative · 24H

Will "caesar" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "caesar" (16 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

Made2026-10-12 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": 0.4746851875987949,
      "diversity": -0.23793103448275862
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4875566749538381
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "caesar",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.03925619834710744,
    "share60": 0.024420529801324503,
    "total15": 241,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 1.6075080543493487,
    "diversity": 0.5517241379310345,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 179,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918569444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996607060185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4875566749538381
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.238

Log loss0.669

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00006189140122132366,
  "shareRatio": 0.09908913293964902,
  "totalAfter": 48472,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007167602436984828,
  "totalBefore": 41855,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "caesar" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.01% (-91%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "caesar" (24H). diversity contributed -0.24 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash44051d575d642dfbd4b8e15c6777e5183971740b77429cd82862a2723f8bf783

Previous hash735708f1f9aa581c71eca4e427479e0b72b34abf2907bbfe4143b2edf71c4b62