Ledger / Prediction #2145 · narrative · 24H

Will "slop" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "slop" (25 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.50×.

Made2026-10-12 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": 0.40781886940967665,
      "diversity": -0.16829268292682928
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4943935236886445
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "slop",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05165289256198347,
    "share60": 0.03435430463576159,
    "total15": 241,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 1.5035348003584585,
    "diversity": 0.6097560975609756,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 179,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918569444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996607060185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4943935236886445
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.244

Log loss0.682

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0025994388512955934,
  "shareRatio": 0.6680832628473583,
  "totalAfter": 48472,
  "shareBefore": 0.00389439732409509,
  "totalBefore": 41855,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 126,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 163
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "slop" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.26% (-33%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "slop" (24H). diversity contributed -0.17 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash735708f1f9aa581c71eca4e427479e0b72b34abf2907bbfe4143b2edf71c4b62

Previous hash07e8f1c97ea21fba464a60b6f0ba3c6bde027531ebcc8f1c9d053167b39e9b8f