Ledger / Prediction #2141 · narrative · 6H
Will "slop" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
41 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "slop" (25 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.50×.
Made2026-10-12 06:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3156201231405311,
"momentum": 0.40781886940967665,
"diversity": -0.16829268292682928
},
"rawProbability": 0.5221361246474125
},
"features": {
"term": "slop",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.05165289256198347,
"share60": 0.03435430463576159,
"total15": 241,
"total60": 1207,
"momentum": 1.5035348003584585,
"diversity": 0.6097560975609756,
"launches15": 12,
"launches60": 41,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 25
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 179,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918569444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986428240740741
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5221361246474125
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 12:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.273
Log loss0.738
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002467866323907455,
"shareRatio": 0.32236616628967035,
"totalAfter": 9725,
"shareBefore": 0.007761828814460393,
"totalBefore": 9405,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 24,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 73
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 52% that "slop" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.78% → 0.25% (-68%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "slop" (6H). momentum contributed +0.41 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
7a74b1827a27f09f9999c0fd23a26137a55a24e90291c704f5102f0ebd470a8fPrevious hash
10ae4b8b92d51b6d2a669a56efa8a298e61f874e8880de85b55f881eaa595c1f