Will "caesar" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "caesar" (16 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.61×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": 0.4746851875987949,
      "diversity": -0.23793103448275862
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5499411302586237
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "caesar",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.03925619834710744,
    "share60": 0.024420529801324503,
    "total15": 241,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 1.6075080543493487,
    "diversity": 0.5517241379310345,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 179,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918569444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918569444444445
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5499411302586237
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.014458374352101148,
  "totalAfter": 1428,
  "shareBefore": 0.023809523809523808,
  "totalBefore": 1218,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 29
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity