Ledger / Prediction #2136 · token · 6H

Will $旺柴 still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05000000000000001
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4PVPpD88grB8MjeakSt7Vtrxfr1nEUjyHx5a7f7ipump",
    "name": "旺柴 ",
    "symbol": "旺柴 ",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 4145.909412706562,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 441,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05000000000000001
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T09:29:43.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3116.5890060163747,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5188.888566095645,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 4145.909412706562,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 8291.818825413124
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $旺柴 would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,117, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $旺柴 (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash78ba541711babbae3b4655bfc8f2512b42d2be2b318397b52359eb91c1459b56

Previous hash9f09c595ca4a8781d3c93be7d7478986de67a846cf01c4f3ee000ccc0a16db53