Ledger / Prediction #2127 · narrative · 6H

Will "dogcoin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1310 launches in the last hour referenced "dogcoin" (21 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -2.5250877066861674,
      "diversity": 0.06923076923076925
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13634432228432147
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dogcoin",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0016181229773462784,
    "share60": 0.02021357742181541,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1310,
    "momentum": 0.08005129144531965,
    "diversity": 0.8076923076923077,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991079166666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13634432228432147
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.019

Log loss0.147

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0026587259385302564,
  "shareRatio": 0.7199515799164447,
  "totalAfter": 9403,
  "shareBefore": 0.0037151702786377707,
  "totalBefore": 9690,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "dogcoin" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.27% (-28%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dogcoin" (6H). momentum contributed -2.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7f18584f875c0c46e25a193cb17515e4a52efa5343cc3db4269d960f9a2558cd

Previous hash7dab203b6b67eac25f17301d030d2404839b2a2109659249328a3407cd962475