Ledger / Prediction #2125 · narrative · 6H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 1310 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (21 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.39×.

Made2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": 0.32659125149117507,
      "diversity": -0.396
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47332168812499587
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.05339805825242718,
    "share60": 0.038520213577421816,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1310,
    "momentum": 1.3862347399788522,
    "diversity": 0.42,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991079166666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47332168812499587
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.277

Log loss0.748

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.024885674784643198,
  "shareRatio": 1.3097923503692714,
  "totalAfter": 9403,
  "shareBefore": 0.018988648090815272,
  "totalBefore": 9690,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 234,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 184
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.90% → 2.49% (+31%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "uxento" (6H). diversity contributed -0.40 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash01b40ecc2704de8a0bb68375bb8a9c8a02efe4eb26ca670f2e43aff1d2060cdf

Previous hashac007e561a6d588b2ce89036c7951715867c585259e12d0e7caf581c1f47d2e4