Ledger / Prediction #2122 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 48% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
42 of 1310 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (34 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.
Made2026-10-12 06:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3192347558773902,
"momentum": -0.16423370556814598,
"diversity": 0.07142857142857144
},
"rawProbability": 0.48161569692726247
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.02750809061488673,
"share60": 0.03241800152555301,
"total15": 308,
"total60": 1310,
"momentum": 0.8485436893203884,
"diversity": 0.8095238095238095,
"launches15": 8,
"launches60": 42,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 34
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 167,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946475
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.48161569692726247
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.269
Log loss0.731
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03348909657320872,
"shareRatio": 1.0697276264591438,
"totalAfter": 1284,
"shareBefore": 0.03129657228017884,
"totalBefore": 1342,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 43,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 42
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 48% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.13% → 3.35% (+7%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
20cdeacc2b1e9ceef83d295b7a28d0f122cd612fca1225ed71a9ef09d5b49677Previous hash
9832d02c59a054aa38665a3ff8a3fe08d5052024846a1619205a2551261aa7c5