GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2122 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1310 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (34 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.

Made2026-10-12 06:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.16423370556814598,
      "diversity": 0.07142857142857144
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.48161569692726247
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.02750809061488673,
    "share60": 0.03241800152555301,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1310,
    "momentum": 0.8485436893203884,
    "diversity": 0.8095238095238095,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946475
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.48161569692726247
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.269
Log loss0.731
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03348909657320872,
  "shareRatio": 1.0697276264591438,
  "totalAfter": 1284,
  "shareBefore": 0.03129657228017884,
  "totalBefore": 1342,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 43,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.13% → 3.35% (+7%). PARTIAL.

— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash20cdeacc2b1e9ceef83d295b7a28d0f122cd612fca1225ed71a9ef09d5b49677
Previous hash9832d02c59a054aa38665a3ff8a3fe08d5052024846a1619205a2551261aa7c5