Ledger / Prediction #2116 · narrative · 24H

Will "view" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1428 launches in the last hour referenced "view" (5 distinct creators, rank #145). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

Made2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.9803917885487368,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3259584629904671
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "view",
    "rank60": 145,
    "share15": 0.0017064846416382253,
    "share60": 0.004548635409377187,
    "total15": 292,
    "total60": 1428,
    "momentum": 0.37516408506169596,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999038078703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3259584629904671
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.106

Log loss0.395

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005364696172495615,
  "shareRatio": 0.9397612633135621,
  "totalAfter": 48465,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005699629524080935,
  "totalBefore": 42108,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 26,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 24
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "view" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.05% (-6%). PARTIAL.

— "view" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashea51b71a051492adaba6c09a598088639ddf99f78aa00517fc9b6783b1b379f4

Previous hash6ac75fe0879126d22cdfd1d4ce8e990dfadb25c9545104a1303fa4d843cd8c53