Ledger / Prediction #2113 · narrative · 24H

Will "coge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 1428 launches in the last hour referenced "coge" (35 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.52×.

Made2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": 0.41635198844549504,
      "diversity": -0.18813559322033901
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4998039156282897
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "coge",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.06313993174061433,
    "share60": 0.04163750874737579,
    "total15": 292,
    "total60": 1428,
    "momentum": 1.5164195370981155,
    "diversity": 0.5932203389830508,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999038078703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4998039156282897
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.250

Log loss0.693

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000722170638605179,
  "shareRatio": 0.4781964948175929,
  "totalAfter": 48465,
  "shareBefore": 0.0015199012064215827,
  "totalBefore": 42108,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "coge" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.07% (-52%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "coge" (24H). diversity contributed -0.19 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashae64263f9b52bbb684362f7043482b7a816f269dc6c2e4f4ba08608dfa475846

Previous hash04925124c56780605ca3d8b9d44d0ae1ace03a921212f703839d1046c6c976b5