Will "collectible" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1428 launches in the last hour referenced "collectible" (5 distinct creators, rank #155). Last 15m momentum 2.22×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.7961002085485299,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6147374333783381
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "collectible",
    "rank60": 155,
    "share15": 0.008532423208191127,
    "share60": 0.003848845346396081,
    "total15": 292,
    "total60": 1428,
    "momentum": 2.216878684455476,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996152314814815
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6147374333783381
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00044004400440044003,
  "shareRatio": 0.33792800003034457,
  "totalAfter": 9090,
  "shareBefore": 0.0014144271570014145,
  "totalBefore": 9898,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 14
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity