Ledger / Prediction #2111 · narrative · 6H

Will "web" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 35% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1428 launches in the last hour referenced "web" (14 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.64×.

Made2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -0.4398241955840085,
      "diversity": -0.2538461538461539
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.35149822282824555
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "web",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.011945392491467578,
    "share60": 0.0185444366689993,
    "total15": 292,
    "total60": 1428,
    "momentum": 0.6441496554832893,
    "diversity": 0.5384615384615384,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996152314814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.35149822282824555
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.124

Log loss0.433

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0008800880088008801,
  "shareRatio": 0.303458112959854,
  "totalAfter": 9090,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030309153364316025,
  "totalBefore": 9898,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 35% that "web" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.09% (-71%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "web" (6H). momentum contributed -0.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0f6e26133da42b095ed9b68d33cee49205e620e639ce7439e4b80034a8e17fca

Previous hash2c6c5bd10766206616b497db20661acc81ab093138cb353ec456ffea227cfe2b