Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 1428 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (25 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": -0.5470697259376059,
      "diversity": 0.1344827586206896
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4002950711953437
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.011945392491467578,
    "share60": 0.020643806857942617,
    "total15": 292,
    "total60": 1428,
    "momentum": 0.5786429108578701,
    "diversity": 0.8620689655172413,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996152314814815
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4002950711953437
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.028162816281628162,
  "shareRatio": 1.9463239862374895,
  "totalAfter": 9090,
  "shareBefore": 0.014447363103657304,
  "totalBefore": 9898,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 256,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 143
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity