Ledger / Prediction #21 · token · 1H

Will $FLINCH still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. website. Rides hot term "working".

Made2026-10-09 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.08750880819853629
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "7oLvW13bY9q3gjmnGbLn85z7B448J251uJikowQLJcQc",
    "name": "FLINCH.EXE",
    "symbol": "FLINCH",
    "hotTerms": [
      "working"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3087.7912396183037,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 418,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.08750880819853629
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 07:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.008

Log loss0.092

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T06:15:22.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3087.7912396183037,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3087.994553947462,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3087.7912396183037,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6175.5824792366075
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 9% that $FLINCH would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $FLINCH (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf4f9f61715c39fb3b5412eb26d966082878bb870ad4b717fd7c4a12f3b024d74

Previous hash229954b77a74bb958ea42de42529ed26208b7174f1b5b7b5412b9d1d98da1530