Ledger / Prediction #2093 · narrative · 6H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

77 of 1513 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (61 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.

Made2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41015512641293755,
      "momentum": 0.5911226415317361,
      "diversity": 0.0506493506493507
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6073887234572515
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.09244791666666667,
    "share60": 0.0511889035667107,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1513,
    "momentum": 1.8060147849462367,
    "diversity": 0.7922077922077922,
    "launches15": 35,
    "launches60": 77,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 61
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987806018518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6073887234572515
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.154

Log loss0.499

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03141481311625774,
  "shareRatio": 1.4390019779774794,
  "totalAfter": 8722,
  "shareBefore": 0.021821724305893814,
  "totalBefore": 10265,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 274,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 224
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 61% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.18% → 3.14% (+44%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (6H). momentum contributed +0.59 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash643d0f35fa926fe3a1b2087b362a7e424059b2446a7974114e891d17d9a35507

Previous hash96e334bfe0fa09576acc78141c887a0522924fdacaf6e893a2f93a8a9f850a34