Ledger / Prediction #2091 · narrative · 1H

Will "reserve" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1513 launches in the last hour referenced "reserve" (5 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

Made2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": -0.8566092394306566,
      "diversity": -0.7125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16929042123042476
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "reserve",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.009114583333333334,
    "share60": 0.021466314398943198,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1513,
    "momentum": 0.42459935897435896,
    "diversity": 0.15625,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926836111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16929042123042476
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.029

Log loss0.185

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.01748095538117876,
  "totalAfter": 1342,
  "shareBefore": 0.02098360655737705,
  "totalBefore": 1525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "reserve" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.10% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "reserve" (1H). momentum contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6fba5b3a1574319bc6f5e055069ca3a9c0f22c1f36a41c30cd615d4a1a811bf6

Previous hashdbd49b977a2517cc5776f210dafd4638b52085d14a5e373ba2140bf9b3ad9c68