Ledger / Prediction #2090 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1513 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (32 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

Made2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -0.027498561277576286,
      "diversity": 0.11052631578947363
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5217986710128426
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.024739583333333332,
    "share60": 0.025429326287978865,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1513,
    "momentum": 0.9728760822510821,
    "diversity": 0.8421052631578947,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926836111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5217986710128426
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.229

Log loss0.650

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.037257824143070044,
  "shareRatio": 1.4904217152914099,
  "totalAfter": 1342,
  "shareBefore": 0.024918032786885248,
  "totalBefore": 1525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 50,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.49% → 3.73% (+50%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). volume contributed +0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdbd49b977a2517cc5776f210dafd4638b52085d14a5e373ba2140bf9b3ad9c68

Previous hashf538312442c9e7d1d557ddef6186cf931ed34b17f510c9e6277675ddf389c367