Will "trenchbrain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 2362 launches in the last hour referenced "trenchbrain" (31 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": -3.3775022964851633,
      "diversity": -0.24736842105263154
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07031372997447242
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "trenchbrain",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0008305647840531562,
    "share60": 0.024333474396953027,
    "total15": 601,
    "total60": 2362,
    "momentum": 0.034132601473349705,
    "diversity": 0.543859649122807,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 376,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999286111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999881018518518
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07031372997447242
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00019341112758687384,
  "shareRatio": 0.04297990896248627,
  "totalAfter": 15511,
  "shareBefore": 0.005204528853177502,
  "totalBefore": 10952,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 57
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity