Will "backpack" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "backpack" (3 distinct creators, rank #82). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -0.1641990547022707,
      "diversity": -0.44999999999999996
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36081022846420585
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "backpack",
    "rank60": 82,
    "share15": 0.0049504950495049506,
    "share60": 0.005833905284831846,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1456,
    "momentum": 0.848573092603378,
    "diversity": 0.375,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998238425925926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36081022846420585
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00033035327152974213,
  "shareRatio": 0.5015615389797945,
  "totalAfter": 48433,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006673180962368026,
  "totalBefore": 41959,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity