Ledger / Prediction #2080 · narrative · 6H

Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

10 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (9 distinct creators, rank #57). Last 15m momentum 1.60×.

Made2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1039720770839918,
      "momentum": 0.4717897120177259,
      "diversity": 0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5570093228468778
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mascot",
    "rank60": 57,
    "share15": 0.01155115511551155,
    "share60": 0.007206588881262869,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1456,
    "momentum": 1.6028602860286028,
    "diversity": 0.9,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 10,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992953703703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5570093228468778
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.196

Log loss0.585

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010253456221198156,
  "shareRatio": 3.813929189983368,
  "totalAfter": 8680,
  "shareBefore": 0.0026560424966799467,
  "totalBefore": 10542,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 89,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "mascot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 1.03% (+286%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "mascot" (6H). momentum contributed +0.47 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5cd149e43b359b5fdaf0e7142e03238b633512e70b55e45ef5a82c3c364d3a41

Previous hashbea2a4341d5c83ae1f9926be302e2a4618cfc768a4ead067ddcbc4c4c0e8ac6b