Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (24 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.88×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -0.1241937200885716,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4969423049478163
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.01485148514851485,
    "share60": 0.016815374056280027,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1456,
    "momentum": 0.8832087290361689,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992953703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4969423049478163
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.029493087557603687,
  "shareRatio": 2.4625853654316616,
  "totalAfter": 8680,
  "shareBefore": 0.01195219123505976,
  "totalBefore": 10542,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 256,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 126
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity