Ledger / Prediction #2078 · narrative · 6H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (25 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.00×.

Made2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -0.0019946400679154977,
      "diversity": 0.2538461538461539
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5123487921132321
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.018151815181518153,
    "share60": 0.01818805765271105,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1456,
    "momentum": 0.9980073479046019,
    "diversity": 0.9615384615384616,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992953703703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5123487921132321
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.238

Log loss0.669

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016244239631336404,
  "shareRatio": 1.2498220774732696,
  "totalAfter": 8680,
  "shareBefore": 0.012995636501612597,
  "totalBefore": 10542,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 141,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 137
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "chain" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.30% → 1.62% (+25%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "chain" (6H). diversity contributed +0.25 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe77f9a4c5e30a9ede0ae231ba5a79c97f7d8bffc6d1c08f5ab4ad83996c5ded6

Previous hashe076b899e6e162a4d203687a86d576fe57aa5b14d559c7b297d0201fcbe4b1b4