Will "graded" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "graded" (5 distinct creators, rank #195). Last 15m momentum 2.11×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.7443301422944352,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5553139423995067
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "graded",
    "rank60": 195,
    "share15": 0.008090614886731391,
    "share60": 0.003843466107617051,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1430,
    "momentum": 2.105030891438658,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999625115740741
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5553139423995067
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004119379621429013,
  "shareRatio": 0.4258497162153309,
  "totalAfter": 48551,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009795723330545932,
  "totalBefore": 41855,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity