Ledger / Prediction #2067 · narrative · 24H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (24 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.69×.
Made2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": 0.5251469921963225,
"diversity": 0.029032258064516103
},
"rawProbability": 0.52845193610306
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.0372168284789644,
"share60": 0.0220125786163522,
"total15": 308,
"total60": 1430,
"momentum": 1.6907073509015258,
"diversity": 0.7741935483870968,
"launches15": 11,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 24
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 223,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999625115740741
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.52845193610306
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.222
Log loss0.638
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.029494758089431732,
"shareRatio": 1.77052073201197,
"totalAfter": 48551,
"shareBefore": 0.016652729661928083,
"totalBefore": 41855,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1432,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 697
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "inu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 1.67% → 2.95% (+77%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (24H). momentum contributed +0.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
56ce768fbb44e9bb4f31b47f7c58f4ff9e16a61211f4117be691c37c1b2275eePrevious hash
0fbaef29297984e733a46b1b3354d1ee87593f725ae04c66a540466c3ef90b46