GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2062 · narrative · 6H

Will "wormhole" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "wormhole" (16 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

Made2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -0.5326677970463906,
      "diversity": -0.3514285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.32859492277025226
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wormhole",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.014563106796116505,
    "share60": 0.02480782669461915,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1430,
    "momentum": 0.5870367838096541,
    "diversity": 0.45714285714285713,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998500462962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.32859492277025226
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.451
Log loss1.113
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.007279870580078576,
  "shareRatio": 2.2479540443120887,
  "totalAfter": 8654,
  "shareBefore": 0.003218094887826407,
  "totalBefore": 10876,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 63,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "wormhole" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.32% → 0.73% (+126%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "wormhole" (6H). momentum contributed -0.53 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash94ab33f3e363c02c7adc53e9fa4b05ad06c9a7735d980088a4b3c7378d9f832c
Previous hasha31ab81336ae996eb96db5d358c26f63f82dd0e6e0af0726e159bad6b7ff30db