Ledger / Prediction #206 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

82 of 2362 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (65 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.69×.

Made2026-10-09 15:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 16:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4195922002245229,
      "momentum": 0.5241642350188216,
      "diversity": 0.051219512195122
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6670729353646548
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.058970099667774084,
    "share60": 0.03491324587388912,
    "total15": 601,
    "total60": 2362,
    "momentum": 1.6890466123024261,
    "diversity": 0.7926829268292683,
    "launches15": 35,
    "launches60": 82,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 65
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 376,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999286111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999286111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6670729353646548
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 16:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.111

Log loss0.405

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04620716211012707,
  "shareRatio": 1.3296125224531692,
  "totalAfter": 2597,
  "shareBefore": 0.03468697123519458,
  "totalBefore": 2364,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 120,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 67% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.47% → 4.62% (+33%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed +0.52 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9e95146db5f087abcaed8bd0646a4efa7cbfadf2b74d716b1a2d17b1dc06f85c

Previous hash0812e85c5aabc845d0ef94e0042e614c78c4f4a105196163775447a733a2928a