Ledger / Prediction #2053 · token · 1H

Will $RUGSCAN still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 14m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "chain".

Made2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 03:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14874997896424488
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "39LnJZ4ja37tmiyhT3JqSxAgfeUT8JurN2WNYWHN1mQS",
    "name": "RugscanAI",
    "symbol": "RUGSCAN",
    "hotTerms": [
      "chain"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 14,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 84,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3126.8139085693215,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 506,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.14874997896424488
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.161

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T03:16:55.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3125.179409992337,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3130.109270636392,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3126.8139085693215,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6253.627817138643
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that $RUGSCAN would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,125, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $RUGSCAN (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe55766303ced37240da064df4b5e8f965276a57ace9a9855013fc1bec253f57a

Previous hash6dec9903ab362be58e3187741685d96e3346a7e9cb2b6e0da765cbc7d212c198