Ledger / Prediction #2048 · narrative · 6H

Will "smarter" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1551 launches in the last hour referenced "smarter" (6 distinct creators, rank #224). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

Made2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 03:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -1.098182643119073,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.30162238737127134
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "smarter",
    "rank60": 224,
    "share15": 0.0013966480446927375,
    "share60": 0.004188144329896907,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1551,
    "momentum": 0.33347657928663516,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943794444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990632407407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.30162238737127134
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 09:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.091

Log loss0.359

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00023443910444262102,
  "shareRatio": 0.26638537271448665,
  "totalAfter": 8531,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010560591393118015,
  "totalBefore": 11363,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 12
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "smarter" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.02% (-78%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "smarter" (6H). momentum contributed -1.10 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbd6105711c6c8a7d2a77a23b970c0a876f7bfa0aa965af5adb4ed35575ce05a5

Previous hash4ed963b3a77e606279d712c7086527d3977311879499fd085d9721587e7ae81e