Ledger / Prediction #2042 · narrative · 1H

Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1551 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (31 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 03:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -1.3664466297137523,
      "diversity": -0.014285714285714235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.20399701278040605
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepe",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.006983240223463687,
    "share60": 0.0273840206185567,
    "total15": 357,
    "total60": 1551,
    "momentum": 0.2550115018074269,
    "diversity": 0.7380952380952381,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943794444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9943794444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.20399701278040605
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.042

Log loss0.228

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006830601092896175,
  "shareRatio": 0.26375426621160414,
  "totalAfter": 1464,
  "shareBefore": 0.026871401151631478,
  "totalBefore": 1563,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 20% that "pepe" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.69% → 0.68% (-75%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pepe" (1H). momentum contributed -1.37 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash49353905c464c6bad863cefe78c1c889206e858ed6d5268c301674192bd67144

Previous hash71937aca40548d371d78cfb1e65fdcd13ccb63611e2d48f24724c23c2584e459