Ledger / Prediction #2040 · token · 6H

Will $M-A-P still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. X link, website, Telegram. No hot term. Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0.2,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.054969486336574155
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2FCv6cZfsCeyx1m9dH7wdKaTMmA8UkDfqFWXi7N9pump",
    "name": "morning-after pill",
    "symbol": "M-A-P",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": true,
    "descriptionLength": 18,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 866.10158228353,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 574,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.054969486336574155
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 09:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.057

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T02:49:19.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 387.49707145282315,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3741.9510296937174,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 866.10158228353,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $M-A-P would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $387, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $M-A-P (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb4a9231eef04480de2591cba9af8d84c37263f033d02c5e6910b01273dc224de

Previous hashf832f3a638d2a4a597aca4cb1a4f8b24619bed9664338b2104c7e1484cf20223