Will "siriuscrocodile" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1813 launches in the last hour referenced "siriuscrocodile" (5 distinct creators, rank #153). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.1101224184816985,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2991697924941383
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "siriuscrocodile",
    "rank60": 153,
    "share15": 0.0013623978201634877,
    "share60": 0.004134509371554576,
    "total15": 366,
    "total60": 1813,
    "momentum": 0.32951861943687555,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998930671296297
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2991697924941383
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00022763487366264513,
  "shareRatio": 1.3294663797147035,
  "totalAfter": 48323,
  "shareBefore": 0.0001670724139577068,
  "totalBefore": 41898,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity