Ledger / Prediction #2032 · narrative · 6H

Will "theory" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 24% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1813 launches in the last hour referenced "theory" (10 distinct creators, rank #73). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -1.537566433308638,
      "diversity": 0.19090909090909086
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23869052297012472
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "theory",
    "rank60": 73,
    "share15": 0.0013623978201634877,
    "share60": 0.006339581036383682,
    "total15": 366,
    "total60": 1813,
    "momentum": 0.2149034474588319,
    "diversity": 0.9090909090909091,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995722685185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23869052297012472
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.057

Log loss0.273

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0002360160490913382,
  "shareRatio": 0.25611274991805966,
  "totalAfter": 8474,
  "shareBefore": 0.0011092150170648465,
  "totalBefore": 11720,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 13
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 24% that "theory" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.02% (-79%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "theory" (6H). momentum contributed -1.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb61134f237975351a1a2b07605c728e815990b39b8106e269d81fc72b311f424

Previous hashadf617fa7516fca33f9fd7b0f21c7d05db4d10552575a7df1a4e5283ad697a83