Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

77 of 1813 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (9 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.22×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.41015512641293755,
      "momentum": -1.4995871852434217,
      "diversity": -0.7597402597402597
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1687628549383142
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.009536784741144414,
    "share60": 0.042723263506063945,
    "total15": 366,
    "total60": 1813,
    "momentum": 0.22322229058627055,
    "diversity": 0.11688311688311688,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 77,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995722685185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1687628549383142
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008142553693651168,
  "shareRatio": 0.5415161410943538,
  "totalAfter": 8474,
  "shareBefore": 0.015102389078498294,
  "totalBefore": 11720,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 177
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity