Ledger / Prediction #2028 · narrative · 1H

Will "nigr" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1813 launches in the last hour referenced "nigr" (8 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": -1.3465111965459289,
      "diversity": -0.6957446808510638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11855878234819554
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigr",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.006811989100817439,
    "share60": 0.026185226019845645,
    "total15": 366,
    "total60": 1813,
    "momentum": 0.2601462785027965,
    "diversity": 0.1702127659574468,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 194,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974336111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974336111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11855878234819554
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.014

Log loss0.126

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013976240391334731,
  "shareRatio": 0.5473096148191708,
  "totalAfter": 1431,
  "shareBefore": 0.025895316804407712,
  "totalBefore": 1815,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "nigr" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.59% → 1.40% (-46%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "nigr" (1H). momentum contributed -1.35 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7c10a3df627a7db8166e54e509bace9194ab2146d598e2d720acb0349a93e3fa

Previous hash4cbc8325ca86b2ab3a349130c9c84019e6ea90edde68d28d86c04991a8a433be