GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2000 · narrative · 6H

Will "calling" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1936 launches in the last hour referenced "calling" (5 distinct creators, rank #216). Last 15m momentum 1.76×.

Made2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.565830204620534,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5759284255764024
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "calling",
    "rank60": 216,
    "share15": 0.005,
    "share60": 0.002839442436757873,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 1936,
    "momentum": 1.760909090909091,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992012962962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5759284255764024
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.180
Log loss0.552
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012690355329949238,
  "shareRatio": 1.5471548868711171,
  "totalAfter": 8668,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008166598611678236,
  "totalBefore": 12245,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 11,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 10
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 58% that "calling" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.13% (+55%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "calling" (6H). momentum contributed +0.57 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash85aa5ad6056969e0fb2f5990ccfd1f9431e00d41f8463801810ebc2393642253
Previous hash034594e1a9b4532b6ec452c5a245ebd9072301b87e9a0070e3562a91cf18cce0