Will "calling" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1936 launches in the last hour referenced "calling" (5 distinct creators, rank #216). Last 15m momentum 1.76×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 0.565830204620534,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5759284255764024
},
"features": {
"term": "calling",
"rank60": 216,
"share15": 0.005,
"share60": 0.002839442436757873,
"total15": 499,
"total60": 1936,
"momentum": 1.760909090909091,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 220,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9952077777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992012962962963
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5759284255764024
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0012690355329949238,
"shareRatio": 1.5471548868711171,
"totalAfter": 8668,
"shareBefore": 0.0008166598611678236,
"totalBefore": 12245,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 11,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 10
}Predicted 58% that "calling" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.13% (+55%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "calling" (6H). momentum contributed +0.57 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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