Ledger / Prediction #1996 · narrative · 1H

Will "property" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 80% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1936 launches in the last hour referenced "property" (6 distinct creators, rank #187). Last 15m momentum 3.87×.

Made2026-10-12 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 1.354287564984804,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7992535881694642
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "property",
    "rank60": 187,
    "share15": 0.013,
    "share60": 0.003355704697986577,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 1936,
    "momentum": 3.874,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 220,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9952077777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9952077777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7992535881694642
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.639

Log loss1.606

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005509641873278236,
  "shareRatio": 0.24703490342256862,
  "totalAfter": 1815,
  "shareBefore": 0.003088008234688626,
  "totalBefore": 1943,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 80% that "property" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.06% (-82%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "property" (1H). momentum contributed +1.35 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 80% and wrong on "property". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4434adbd62f9b53161067324a0e2cd2b5623bc2da116964e2a29221e6491198e

Previous hash69020734913f4214b5f0db405a262193f3f04cf5e977ce792c7c8368c220c9d8