Ledger / Prediction #1984 · narrative · 6H
Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (5 distinct creators, rank #92). Last 15m momentum 2.65×.
Made2026-10-12 01:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": 0.975227911450306,
"diversity": -0.04285714285714284
},
"rawProbability": 0.5957985279846916
},
"features": {
"term": "agent",
"rank60": 92,
"share15": 0.01193058568329718,
"share60": 0.004499100179964007,
"total15": 460,
"total60": 1666,
"momentum": 2.65177151120752,
"diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 162,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9982583333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997097222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5957985279846916
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 07:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.163
Log loss0.518
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.010914647456887142,
"shareRatio": 1.0303319955769614,
"totalAfter": 9162,
"shareBefore": 0.010605817130001607,
"totalBefore": 12446,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 100,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 132
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "agent" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.06% → 1.09% (+3%). PARTIAL.
— "agent" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
240760cc6c1779e2d5f648739d72e96497b2fbbb34decb36cc540b2d6c1c5338Previous hash
28b2a0fdebeb036ec13fa7fd781a7861e19e2d0c4dfbf93117612030251aeca4