Ledger / Prediction #1980 · narrative · 1H

Will "stocks" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1666 launches in the last hour referenced "stocks" (7 distinct creators, rank #110). Last 15m momentum 0.72×.

Made2026-10-12 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.3240550726799548,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.43202738252295236
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stocks",
    "rank60": 110,
    "share15": 0.0032537960954446853,
    "share60": 0.004499100179964007,
    "total15": 460,
    "total60": 1666,
    "momentum": 0.7232104121475055,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982583333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982583333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.43202738252295236
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.187

Log loss0.566

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0029182879377431907,
  "shareRatio": 0.7044563279857398,
  "totalAfter": 2056,
  "shareBefore": 0.004189108318372232,
  "totalBefore": 1671,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 43% that "stocks" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.42% → 0.29% (-30%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "stocks" (1H). momentum contributed -0.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash21c2702b04f81687cb05f30c05519535c06cf56ad2838b9c240479ccf6b79614

Previous hashe51c36015ab353716cfa68577277e6e8e3ff020bfcf3f3872237c2311b4d5495