Ledger / Prediction #1971 · narrative · 24H

Will "survivor" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1623 launches in the last hour referenced "survivor" (7 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 3.63×.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": 1.2882899232514495,
      "diversity": -0.5181818181818182
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5488869168037019
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "survivor",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.05024509803921569,
    "share60": 0.013854679802955665,
    "total15": 407,
    "total60": 1623,
    "momentum": 3.6265795206971676,
    "diversity": 0.3181818181818182,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926958333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996956597222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5488869168037019
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.301

Log loss0.796

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00018336287512988204,
  "shareRatio": 0.25006111971314476,
  "totalAfter": 49083,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007621043606658886,
  "totalBefore": 41989,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "survivor" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.02% (-76%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "survivor" (24H). momentum contributed +1.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1ba863fb9a4a1eaa8897a69c5feaf5fdebb3da2d0b998db7042bcfbf9578960f

Previous hashcde19bdaed091564b3d434077e975f57b007107d71cd84a5357dfa98a22d939a