Ledger / Prediction #1967 · narrative · 6H

Will "doge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1623 launches in the last hour referenced "doge" (18 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 2.12×.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.7501085694756038,
      "diversity": 0.03913043478260873
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.601735881589282
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "doge",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.030637254901960783,
    "share60": 0.014470443349753694,
    "total15": 407,
    "total60": 1623,
    "momentum": 2.117229870671673,
    "diversity": 0.782608695652174,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926958333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987826388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.601735881589282
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.362

Log loss0.921

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0073875802997858675,
  "shareRatio": 0.8582961022805604,
  "totalAfter": 9340,
  "shareBefore": 0.008630158481092108,
  "totalBefore": 12746,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 110
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "doge" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.86% → 0.74% (-14%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "doge" (6H). momentum contributed +0.75 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1f4468e22c91dc9f2f4f2a58099d199ff7031cc7e3764df565ca163fa04a942e

Previous hashe5ee74d9ca3393ee8b3b96c2053fc4ef5ff640184cc6d984b50b471fb49e0b50