Ledger / Prediction #1966 · narrative · 6H

Will "bitdog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1623 launches in the last hour referenced "bitdog" (18 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 1.89×.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": 0.6378023121306242,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.551960815353569
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bitdog",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.03553921568627451,
    "share60": 0.018780788177339903,
    "total15": 407,
    "total60": 1623,
    "momentum": 1.892317582770813,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926958333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987826388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.551960815353569
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.305

Log loss0.803

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00042826552462526765,
  "shareRatio": 0.20133871298927167,
  "totalAfter": 9340,
  "shareBefore": 0.002353679585752393,
  "totalBefore": 12746,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "bitdog" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.04% (-82%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "bitdog" (6H). momentum contributed +0.64 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe5ee74d9ca3393ee8b3b96c2053fc4ef5ff640184cc6d984b50b471fb49e0b50

Previous hasha67b6e97b71c6443659301c1d04e46245c59408026851d7b927fb60e8ca192b3