Ledger / Prediction #1961 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

87 of 1623 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (9 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.

Made2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42847053093307247,
      "momentum": -0.06983356090174463,
      "diversity": -0.7758620689655172
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.32800432748708624
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05024509803921569,
    "share60": 0.05387931034482758,
    "total15": 407,
    "total60": 1623,
    "momentum": 0.9325490196078432,
    "diversity": 0.10344827586206896,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 87,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 168,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926958333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926958333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.32800432748708624
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.108

Log loss0.397

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014410705095213588,
  "shareRatio": 0.27394179894179893,
  "totalAfter": 1943,
  "shareBefore": 0.05324357405140759,
  "totalBefore": 1634,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 87
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.32% → 1.44% (-73%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3e273d5fe54cf825fed0d6a9aac846b489ce924bae815990cb0eca60e5c99dbf

Previous hashfcd586dfafadffa81c159744aedb63a6ca77fe1a1b09ef929d545e3981606ebf